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제목 "北 노동당 대표자회서 김정은 데뷔"[WSJ] / Meeting to Clarify North Korea's Path
글쓴이 연합뉴스/EVANRA 등록일 2010-08-22
출처 연합뉴스 / WSJ 조회수 2338

 

다음은 조선닷컴  http://www.chosun.com 에 있는


기사입니다.

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정치
북한

"北 노동당 대표자회서 김정은 데뷔"[WSJ]

 

  • 연합뉴스
  • 입력 : 2010.08.22 00:23
 

“집단지도체제 갈 것” 관측도

북한이 내달 초순 열릴 노동당 대표자 회의에서 김정일 국방위원장의 후계자로 내정된 김정은을 등장시켜 세계 무대에 첫 선을 보이게 될 것이라고 월 스트리트 저널(WSJ)이 21일 보도했다.

하지만 일부 북한 전문가들은 북한이 이 대표자 회의에서 1인 지배체제 보다는 집단지도체제로 가는 움직임을 보일 것으로 관측하고 있다고 이 신문은 전했다.

WSJ은 한국의 유동열 치안정책연구관 발언을 인용, “이번 대표자 회의에서 김정은의 이름이 언급되지 않을 경우 김정은이 후계자가 되기는 어려울 것”이라면서 “김정일 위원장의 건강상태를 감안할 때 김정은은 이번에 최소한 한 개 이상의 중요 보직을 맡게 될 것”이라고 전했다.

지난 1966년 이후 44년만에 개최되는 북한의 노동당 대표자회는 9월6∼8일 사흘간 열릴 예정이나 아직 명확한 일정은 공개되지 않고 있다.

북한은 김 위원장이 고(故) 김일성 전 주석의 후계자로 공식 등장한 1980년의 제6차 대회 이후 당 대회를 열지 않고 있다.

앞서 북한은 내달 초 노동당 최고지도기관 선거를 위해 대표자회를 소집하겠다고 예고, 김정은이 이번 대표자회를 통해 공식 직함을 얻는 등 후계 작업을 구체화할 것으로 추측되고 있다.

WSJ은 한편 북한 문제 전문가인 오스트리아 빈 대학의 루디거 프랭크 교수의 경우 북한이 김정은을 후계자로 내세우기보다는 여타 사회주의 국가들처럼 김정은을 포함한 집단 지도체제를 선택할 가능성이 높은 것으로 보고 있다고 전했다.

프랭크 교수는 북한은 경제상황이 안좋은데다 엘리트 계층의 경우 권력을 원하고 있고 일반 국민들도 새로운 인물에 대한 신화가 만들어지는 것을 원하지 않고 있어 김정은을 후계자로 받아들이지 않을 것이라고 관측했다.

그는 “김씨 일가가 3대에 걸쳐 권력을 물려주는 것이 가능하다고 보지 않는다”면서 “포도주에 물을 타고 나서도 계속 술맛이 좋으리라고 기대할 수 없는 것과 마찬가지”라고 말했다.
 
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다음은 The Wall Street Jounal  http://online.wsc.com 에 있는 기사입니다.
 
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Meeting to Clarify North Korea's

Path

 

[NKOREA] Agence France-Press / Getty Images

North Korean officials in July 2009 mark 15 years since leader Kim Il Sung's death.

 

SEOUL—The biggest meeting of North Korea's ruling political party in 44 years, expected to be held next month, may give the world its first look at the country's potential next leader, Kim Jong Il's third son Kim Jong Eun. But some North Korea watchers think the meeting may reveal a bigger surprise: a step away from dictatorship to collective rule.

The representatives meeting of the Workers Party of Korea—likely to begin around Sept. 6, though an official date hasn't been announced—will mark a turning point in a drawn-out succession process occurring out of view of most North Koreans, let alone the rest of the world.

Any revelations about the secretive regime's future shape will be watched from South Korea, which has lived for decades under martial threats from the North, to the U.S., which wants Pyongyang to stop building nuclear weapons.

Kim Dynasty

Read more about the Kim family tree.

The meeting, called in June, appears in some ways similar to the 1980 event in which Kim Jong Il made his public debut. But it's even rarer: The last meeting of party representatives occurred in 1966 with thousands in attendance, while Kim Jong Il's debut occurred at a smaller party congress, six of which have been held since the country's start in 1948.

"If Kim Jong Eun's name doesn't come out in this meeting, he is not going to make it" as the next leader of the country, says Yoo Dong-ryul, a North Korea analyst at the Police Science Institute in South Korea. "Given Kim Jong Il's poor health, Kim Jong Eun should join at least one of the important state organs."

Kim Jong Il hasn't been seen in video images for several months. On Friday, Seoul-based Open Radio for North Korea reported that the two French doctors who treated Mr. Kim for a stroke-like illness in 2008 spent 12 days with him this month.

Mr. Kim's grip on power has weakened in the past two years, creating a vacuum that led officials to become uncertain about their future and resort to the regime's most extreme conventions of isolationism and paranoia, diplomats in the U.S. and elsewhere believe.

That resulted in confrontations with outsiders, including a nuclear test last year and March's sinking a South Korean warship, which Seoul-led international investigators have blamed on Pyongyang. Addressing perceived internal threats, the regime clamped down on private market activities earlier this year.

Analysts believe Mr. Kim early last year began positioning his son as his successor, just as he was to his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, seen as a potential regent for Mr. Kim's son, in June took an important post in the National Defense Commission, considered North Korea's most powerful body.

Yet North Korea's information lockdown gives prognosticators little further information to work with. International observers of its authoritarian regime must base judgments on what information trickles out from the North's often-bombastic official media, the few people allowed to leave the country to do business in China, and informants who are in touch with defectors in South Korea.

[NKOREA] Agence France-Press / Getty Images

Kim Jong Il may pass power to Kim Jong Eun, shown above in an undated school photo.

The youngest Kim has never been mentioned in the North Korean media. Outside the country, he has been seen publicly only in photographs taken more than a decade ago when he attended a private Swiss high school.

South Korean and Japanese news media have reported that North Korea's propaganda agencies have printed millions of pictures of Kim Jong Eun to be distributed to the homes of ordinary citizens, who already keep photos of the older Kims.

That the family is attempting another generational succession has become accepted wisdom among North Korea observers, but some have recently started to express doubts about the regime's ability to pull it off. They point to a recent personnel exodus in a propaganda office that was believed to be working on Kim Jong Eun's behalf and chatter among North Korean traders in China that the son, at age 26 or 27, is perceived by many people as too young to hold power.

"Kim Jong Il believes that the only way for him to maintain his power is to establish the hereditary succession of his son," Kang Chol-hwan, a defector who wrote a book about growing up in a North Korean prison camp, wrote in South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper this week. "But it is doubtful the entire party agrees."

Rudiger Frank, an economist and professor at the University of Vienna in Austria who follows North Korea, said he doesn't think North Koreans will accept a third generation of Kim leadership because the country's economy is in shambles, its elites want power and common people won't believe a new set of superlatives and myths about another Kim.

"I don't think a third 'great leader' will work," Mr. Frank said. "You cannot endlessly pour water into wine and have it still taste good."

Instead, he said the party is likely to set up a collective leadership structure that may involve the younger Kim but not as a supreme leader, a type of control he said was common in communist countries.

—Jaeyeon Woo contributed to this article.

Write to Evan Ramstad at evan.ramstad@wsj.com