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제목 美보고서 "北 내부 저항 뿌리내려" (조선닷컴-연합뉴스)영문기사/ 첨부 파일도
글쓴이 연합뉴스 등록일 2010-03-25
출처 조선닷컴-연합뉴스 조회수 2404

다음은 조선닷컴  http://www.chosun.com 에 있는


기사입니다.

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정치
북한

美보고서 "北 내부 저항 뿌리내려"

 

  • 연합뉴스

입력 : 2010.03.24 16:36 / 수정 : 2010.03.24 17:53

 

 
북한 주민의 절반 이상이 해외뉴스를 듣고 있고 사회 기층의 냉소주의로 국가의 신화가 흔들리고 있으며 심지어 엘리트 계층 내에서도 불만이 증가하는 등 북한 지도자 김정일이 대내적인 선전전에서도 패배하고 있다는 증거가 점증하고 있다고 미국 워싱턴포스트(WP)가 24일 보도했다.

신문은 이번 주 미 의회 산하 ’이스트-웨스트 센터’가 발표할 보고서를 인용해 북한이 안고 있는 부패와 불평등 확대 및 만성적인 식량난이 미국이나 남한 또는 외부 세력 때문이 아니라 바로 북한 정권의 잘못 때문이라고 믿고 있는 주민들이 늘어나고 있으며 이에 따라 ’일상적인 형태의 저항’이 뿌리를 내리고 있다고 전했다.

2008년11월 300명의 남한 거주 탈북자들을 상대로 작성한 ’압제하의 정치적 태도’라는 이 보고서는 워싱턴 소재 피터슨 국제경제연구소의 마커스 놀런드 부소장과 샌디에이고 캘리포니아 주립대학의 아시아 전문가 스티븐 해거드가 공동 작성했다.

놀런드 부소장은 “일단 정부가 한번 신뢰를 상실하면 이를 회복하기가 매우 어렵다”고 지적하면서 그러나 김정일 정권이 주민들의 신뢰를 잃어가고 있는 것으로 보이지만 아직 북한 내부에 조직적인 저항이 일고 있다는 징후는 거의 또는 전혀 보이지 않는다고 덧붙였다.

보고서는 지난 10년간 북한 내의 사설 시장이 규모와 영향 면에서 급속 성장하고 대부분의 주민들도 식량이나 일자리를 중앙정부에 의존하지 않게 되는 등 북한 정권의 기반이 크게 변화했다고 지적했다.

보고서는 시간이 갈수록 북한 정권에 대한 평가가 보다 부정적으로 나타나고 있다면서 좀더 일찍 북한을 떠난 주민들은 북한이 안고 있는 문제점의 원인을 외부로 돌리는 경향이 있으나 보다 최근에 탈북한 주민들은 문제점의 원인을 외세 보다는 북한 정권에 돌리고 있다고 전했다.

마커스와 해거드는 조사에 참여한 탈북자들이 북한 정권을 혐오해 탈북한 만큼 증언이 다소 과장됐을 가능성을 시인했으나 대부분 탈북자들의 탈북 동기가 경제적 이유이고 또 인구학적 구성면에서 대략적으로 북한 사회를 반영하고 있다고 지적했다.

보고서는 북한 정권에 대한 냉소주의가 정부 관리나 군 출신 등 엘리트 배경을 가진 탈북자들 사이에서 높게 나타났으며 특히 시장활동에 관여한 탈북자들의 불만이 가장 높았다.

조사 대상 탈북자 가운데 약 70%가 그들의 수입 가운데 절반 이상을 사적 거래에서 벌어들이고 있다고 답변해 북한 사회의 거의 모든 계층이 시장활동에 관여하고 있음을 보여주고 있다.

이밖에 2006년부터 북한을 떠난 탈북자들 가운데 절반 이상이 외부 뉴스를 정기적으로 듣거나 봤다고 답변했다.

북한 주민들이 주로 남한이나 중국, 미국 등지로부터의 방송을 통한 이같은 대체 정보원에 접근할 수 있게 되면서 ’노동자의 낙원’이란 신화적 이미지가 손상되고 있으며 권위주의적 통치를 흔들 수 있는 정보의 홍수 위험성도 상존하고 있다고 보고서는 지적했다.

신문은 이어 서방 정부 및 유엔 기구에 대한 자문조직인 국제위기그룹(ICG)의 또 다른 보고서를 인용, 북한 내부의 스트레스에 대한 신호들이 점증하고 있다면서 식량난 악화와 재앙적인 통화개혁이 지역의 국제적 안보에 예기치 않은 결과를 초래할 수도 있다고 우려했다.

ICG 보고서는 “가능성은 희박하지만 북한 지도부가 갑작스레 분열될 가능성도 전혀 배제할 수 없다”고 분석했다.

yjyoo@yna.co.kr

[핫이슈] 안팎으로 초조한 김정일

[핫이슈] 북한, ‘화폐개혁’후폭풍

 

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다음은 워싱턴포스트  http://www.washingtonpost.com


있는 기사입니다.

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Resistance against N. Korean


regime  taking root,


survey suggests

 

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Washington Post Foreign Service

Wednesday, March 24, 2010
 
 

TOKYO -- There is mounting evidence that Kim Jong Il is losing the propaganda war inside North Korea, with more than half the population now listening to foreign news, grass-roots cynicism undercutting state myths and discontent rising even among elites.

 

A survey of refugees has found that "everyday forms of resistance" in the North are taking root as large swaths of the population believe that pervasive corruption, rising inequity and chronic food shortages are the fault of the government in Pyongyang -- and not of the United States, South Korea or other foreign forces. The report will be released this week by the East-West Center, a research group established by Congress.

 

The report comes amid unconfirmed accounts from inside North Korea of a rising number of starvation deaths caused by a bad harvest and bungled currency reform that disrupted food markets, caused runaway inflation and triggered widespread citizen unrest.

 

Last week, North Korea reportedly executed the top finance official responsible for the currency fiasco, and several top officials have publicly apologized -- a remarkable turn for a dictatorship that enslaves and executes its political enemies in labor camps.

 

The number of starvation deaths in South Pyongan province, in the center of the country, is in the thousands since January, according to Good Friends, a Seoul relief group with informants inside North Korea. It said bodies of malnourished elderly people were being found in the streets of Pyongyang, the capital, and it quoted unnamed party officials as saying that starvation has risen in some areas this winter to levels unseen since the 1990s, when famine killed as many as 1 million North Koreans.

 

This mix of deadly food shortages, bureaucratic bumbling and rising cynicism presents a potentially destabilizing threat to Kim's government. It comes at a delicate time, when the ailing 68-year-old leader has launched a secretive process to hand power over to his untested 27-year-old son, Kim Jong Eun.

 

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"Once a government has so badly damaged trust, it may be very difficult, if not impossible, to restore its credibility," said Marcus Noland, co-author of "Political Attitudes under Repression," the new report on a survey of North Korean refugees.

 

Although Kim's government appears to be losing the hearts and minds of North Koreans, there is little or no indication that organized opposition has emerged inside the country, said Noland, deputy director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

 

But signals of internal stress are growing, according to another new report on conditions inside North Korea. The International Crisis Group, an independent group that advises many Western governments and U.N. agencies, said last week that pressure from the deteriorating food supply and "disastrous" currency reform "could have a number of unanticipated consequences for regional international security. A sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question."

 

The refugee survey suggests that the ground beneath Kim's government has shifted considerably in the past decade, as private markets have exploded in size and influence -- and as most North Koreans are no longer dependent on the dysfunctional central government for food or work.

 

The results in the report are based on a November 2008 survey of 300 North Korean refugees living in South Korea. The refugees in the survey -- parts of which were first publicized last fall -- include new arrivals as well as those who fled during the height of the 1990s famine.

 

"Evaluations of the regime appear to be getting more negative over time," the report said. "Although those who departed earlier were more willing to entertain the view that the country's problems were due to foreigners, respondents who left later were more likely to hold the government accountable."

 

Noland and his co-author, Stephan Haggard, an Asian specialist at the University of California in San Diego, concede that the survey -- with its reliance on a self-selected group that made the perilous choice to flee North Korea -- might overrepresent those who abhor the leadership in Pyongyang. But they note that most refugees fled the North for economic reasons and that their demographic background roughly mirrors the shape of North Korean society.

 

The survey found that cynicism about the government -- and willingness to crack jokes about its failures -- was higher among refugees who come from elite backgrounds in the government or military. It also found that distaste for the government was strongest among those deeply involved in the markets.

 

The most striking finding of the survey was the reach of those markets across all strata of North Korean society, with nearly 70 percent of respondents saying that half or more of their income came from private business dealings.

 

In addition, more than half of refugees who have fled North Korea since 2006 said they listened or watched foreign news reports regularly. North Korea outlaws radios and TVs that can be tuned to foreign stations, but consumer electronics have flooded into the country from China.

 

"Not only is foreign media becoming more widely available, inhibitions on its consumption are declining as well," the report said, referring to broadcasts from South Korea, China and the United States. "The availability of alternative sources of information undermines the heroic image of a workers' paradise and threatens to unleash the information cascade that can be so destabilizing to authoritarian rule."

 

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다음은 East - West Center의 홈페이지

http://www.eastweastcenter.org에 있는 기사입니다.

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Repression and Punishment in

North Korea:

Refugee Surveys Shed Light on

Prison Camp Conditions

 

HONOLULU (Oct. 6) – North Korea’s brutal prison system has long played a central role in the regime’s suppression of political dissent. But a new report based on surveys of North Korean refugees reveals that the country’s penal system also appears to have been increasingly used as a means to terrorize – and extract bribes from – citizens engaging in private economic activity as a survival tactic following the deadly famine of the late 1990s and ongoing food shortages.

 

In their recently released East-West Center Working Paper Repression and Punishment in North Korea: Survey Evidence of Prison Camp Experiences, EWC Senior Fellow Marcus Noland and UC San Diego Professor Stephan Haggard detail the results of two unique refugee surveys—one conducted in China, one in South Korea—that document the changing role of the North Korean penal system.

 

“The portrait that emerges is of a Soviet-style gulag characterized by an arbitrary judicial system, an expansive conception of crime, and horrific abuses,” write Haggard and Noland, who is also Deputy Director of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

 

One particularly striking finding, they write, “is that the conditions that are frequently seen as characteristic of the country’s infamous gulag of political penal-labor colonies –such as extreme deprivation and exposure to violence – in fact pertain across the penal system, from the penitentiaries designed to house felons to lower-level jails [used to punish] a widening array of other economic and social crimes that are associated with the process we describe as ‘marketization from below.’”

 

Even among the refugees who said they had been imprisoned for relatively brief periods at lower-level penal facilities, a substantial number reported witnessing such abuses as forced starvation, deprivation of medical care, deaths due to beating or torture, and public executions.

 

The frequency of abuse appears surprisingly uniform over the different institutions, the authors report, a point that is particularly underscored when the generally shorter sentences in the lower level facilities are taken into account.

 

“The penal system appears to process large numbers of people engaged in illicit activities for relatively short periods, exposing inmates to terrible abuses,” Noland and Haggard write. “This pattern not only serves to intimidate; other research we have conducted on the pervasiveness of corruption suggests that abusive treatment may also benefit corrupt officials extracting bribes from those seeking to avoid entanglement with the penal system.”

 

"This is a system for shaking people down," Noland said in an Oct. 5 Washington Post article on the report. "It really looks like the work of a gang, a kind of 'Soprano' state. But it succeeds in keeping people repressed."

 

Noland and Haggard write that the changes in the North Korean prison system must be understood in the context of the profound economic and social changes that have occurred in the country over the last decade, and the government’s repressive response to them.

 

“As the state proved unable to provide food through socialist distribution networks,” Noland and Haggard write, “…small-scale social units—households, factories and cooperatives, local government and party offices, even military units—began engaging in entrepreneurial behavior—much of it technically illegal—in order to survive… As the state has attempted to reassert control over society in the decade since the end of the famine, the penal system has evolved accordingly.”

 

Along with satellite imagery and other evidence of the North Korean prison system, Noland and Haggard’s report is based on two surveys of refugees, the first conducted at 11 sites in China in 2004 and 2005 and the second conducted last year in South Korea. Nearly 1,350 people were interviewed in the China survey, and 300 in South Korea.

 

The scholars acknowledge that the surveys are susceptible to some bias since “refugees may leave precisely because of the intensity of their ill-treatment and disaffection.” However, they note, there are some reasons to believe that the sources of bias are somewhat less pronounced than might be thought, since refugees were asked questions not only about their own experience but their observation of the treatment of others.

 

In addition, Noland pointed out, when asked about a specific practice that has been alleged in some of the prison facilities of forced abortions or the killing of newborns, just 5 percent of the respondents who had been in such facilities indicated that they had witnessed these practices. According to the authors, “This pattern of a high rate of affirmative response to general phenomena such as hunger in the prison system and a much lower response on the highly specific practice of infanticide suggests respondents were not simply providing the answers they believed interviewers wanted to hear.”

 

“This reassurance makes the response to a final question all the more chilling,” they add. “When asked if they believed that prisoners were used in medical experimentation … 55 percent of the respondents believed (but did not necessarily witness) that this had occurred at the facilities in which they were incarcerated.”

 

“There is much about this system that we do not understand,” Noland and Haggard concede. “However, this brief review of the development of the criminal and penal system and evidence from two surveys does shed some additional light on the nature of repression in North Korea …  In combination, these findings provide insight into how to think about North Korean politics, and the centrality of discretion and terror to the maintenance of the regime’s power.”

 

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The EAST-WEST CENTER is an education and research organization established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations and understanding among the peoples and nations of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. The Center contributes to a peaceful, prosperous and just Asia Pacific community by serving as a vigorous hub for cooperative research, education and dialogue on critical issues of common concern to the Asia Pacific region and the United States. Funding for the Center comes from the U.S. government, with additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, foundations, corporations and the governments of the region.

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아래의 파일은  East - West Center의 홈페이지

http://www.eastweastcenter.org에 있는입니다.

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다음을 첨부 파일로 보냅니다.

 

East-West Center Working Paper

 

Repression and Punishment in North Korea  :

 

Survey Evidence of Prison Camp Experiences

 

 
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