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제목 中 "출구전략시기상조"…세계, 한시름 덜다(조선일보)/ 다른 기사들
글쓴이 최유식특파원 등록일 2010-03-06
출처 조선일보 조회수 1772

 

다음은 조선일보  http://www.chosun.com 에 있는


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국제
아시아

中 "출구전략(경기 하강기때의 부양책을 거둬



들이는 것) 시기상조"…세계, 한시름 덜다

 

  • 입력 : 2010.03.06 02:55

사상최대 '1조500억위안 적자재정' 편성, 家電·車 지원 유지… 신규 대출은 조여
"위안화 환율, 합리적·안정적으로 유지"

全人大 개막… 원자바오 총리 시정연설

"세계 경제 회복의 기초가 취약하고 금융 위험요소도 완전히 제거되지 않아
중국 경제의 내생적 동력도 부족하다… 경제가 부분적으로 회복된다곤 하지만
각국의 출구전략이 난항 겪고 있지 않나"

 

성장목표 8%, 실업률 억제 목표 4.6%, 일자리 900만개 창출….

원자바오(溫家寶) 중국 총리의 5일 전국인민대표대회(전인대) 개막식 정부업무보고는 지난해와 빼다박은 듯 비슷한 내용이었다. 다가오는 글로벌 금융위기의 여파를 앞두고 잔뜩 긴장했던 모습을 찾아볼 수 없었다는 것 정도가 지난해와 달라진 점이었다.

원 총리의 이날 보고에서 눈에 띄는 것은 재정 적자 규모이다. 중국은 올해 재정 적자 규모를 지난해보다 1000억위안 늘어난 1조500억위안(약 175조원)으로 책정했다. 지난해와 비슷한 GDP(국내총생산)의 2.8% 수준으로, 지난해에 이어 올해도 사상 최대 규모의 적자 재정을 편성하기로 한 것이다.

반면 올 연초부터 중앙은행인 인민은행이 두 차례나 은행 지급준비율을 인상하면서 예상됐던 출구전략 시행에 관한 언급은 전혀 찾아볼 수 없었다.

중국 정부가 지난해 수준의 재정적자를 유지한다는 것은 올해에도 경기 부양 기조를 그대로 가져가겠다는 뜻이다. 양평섭 대외경제정책연구원 베이징사무소장은 "전체적으로 글로벌 금융위기를 맞아 세웠던 지난해 정책 기조를 변화없이 유지하겠다는 내용"이라며 "소비자 물가 억제 목표를 4%에서 3%로 낮춘 것은 물가 관리에 대한 중국 정부의 자신감을 드러낸 것"이라고 말했다.

중국 정부가 국내외의 자산 버블 우려에도 불구하고 경기 부양책을 그대로 끌고가기로 한 것은 세계 경제의 회복 추세가 여전히 불안하다고 보기 때문이다.

원 총리는 이날 보고에서 "세계 경제 회복의 기초가 취약하고, 금융 영역의 위험요소도 완전히 제거되지 않아 각국이 출구 전략 결정에 어려움을 겪고 있다"며 "(중국 경제의) 외부환경이 불안하고 불확실한 요소도 많다"고 진단했다. 중국 내부에 대해서도 "경제 성장의 내생적 동력이 부족하다"고 말했다. 지난해 대대적인 경기 부양책에도 불구하고 민간의 투자·소비가 살아나지 않고 있다는 것이다.

그는 이어 "전면적이고 정확한 형세 판단을 해야 한다. 경기가 반등한다고 경제 운용을 근본적으로 전환할 수는 없는 일"이라고 강조했다. 금리 인상 등 조기 출구전략을 시행해야 한다는 중국 정부 일각과 전문가들의 주장에 대해 '시기상조'라는 입장을 보인 것이다. 이에 따라 올해 중국이 금리 인상 등 조기 출구전략에 들어갈 가능성은 낮아진 것으로 전문가들은 보고 있다.

다만, 세부적으로는 자금 흐름의 왜곡을 막고 경기 부양 투자의 효율성을 높이기 위한 정책의 미세조정이 있을 것으로 보인다.

중국 정부는 올해 신규 대출 목표치를 지난해 9조6000억위안보다 2조1000억위안가량 줄어든 7조5000억위안으로 낮춰잡았다. 또 투자 자금이 과잉생산 업종이나 부동산 등 비효율적인 부문으로 몰리는 것을 막기 위해 대출 구조를 개선하겠다는 방침도 밝혔다.

내수 중심으로 경제성장 모델을 전환하기 위한 소비 확대 정책도 이어질 것으로 보인다. 원 총리는 이날 "재정의 상당 부분을 의료 서비스 확대와 보장성 주택의 공급, 교육 개혁, 소득분배 구조 개선 등에 투입할 것"이라고 밝혔다. 사회 보장을 통해 서민의 소비 여력을 높여나가는 정책을 지속하겠다는 의지를 밝힌 것이다.

지난해 도입한 가전하향(家電下鄕·농민이 가전제품을 구입할 때 보조금을 지급하는 정책)과 자동차 구매세 인하 등의 단기 소비 진작책도 올해 계속된다.

논란이 되고 있는 위안화 절상에 대해서는 "위안화 환율을 합리적이고 균형 잡힌 수준에서 안정적으로 유지하겠다"는 의례적인 언급만 하고 넘어갔다. 원 총리는 지난해 말 "외부의 압력에 굴복해 위안화를 절상하는 일은 없을 것"이라는 강경 입장을 밝힌 바 있다. 중국 내 전문가들은 위안화 절상을 요구하는 미국·EU(유럽연합)와의 관계를 고려해 향후 위안화 환율을 올릴 여지를 남긴 것으로 평가하고 있다.

5일 중국 베이징의 인민대회당에서 개막한 전국인민대표대회(전인대)에서 후진타오(胡錦濤) 주석(왼쪽)이 원자바오(溫家寶) 총리와 환담하고 있다. / AP연합뉴스
5일 중국 베이징 인민대회당에서 열린 제11차 전국인민대표대회 3차 회의에서 자리를 꽉 채운 참석자들이 원자바오(溫家寶) 총리의 연설을 듣고 있다. 원 총리는 정부업무 보고에서 올해도 적극적인 재정정책과 유연한 통화정책을 이어가겠다고 말했다. / 신화통신 뉴시스
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다음은 新華網 (英文) http://www.xinhuanet.com/english2010  에 있는 기사입니다.
 
--------------------------------
China
 

China sets 2010 economic growth rate

 

at 8%, stressing quality of growth

English.news.cn   2010-03-05 10:09:52

 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivers a government work report during the opening meeting of the Third Session of the 11th National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, March 5, 2010. (Xinhua/Liu Weibing)

 

by Xinhua writers Wang Yaguang, Chen Yongrong and Liu Jie

 

 

BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) -- China expects its economy to grow around 8 percent in 2010 from a year earlier, said Premier Wen Jiabao at the annual parliament session Friday, expecting a "crucial but complicated" year for economic recovery.

 

Setting the 8-percent target mainly "aims at ensuring the quality of economic growth, focusing on transformation of economic growth pattern and adjustment of economic structure," said Wen in his government work report to the National People's Congress (NPC).

 

The increase of consumer price index, a main gauge of the country's inflation, will be held around 3 percent, the premier said.

 

Although the development environment this year may be better than 2009, China "will still face a complicated situation," Wen said.

 

The year of 2010 will be a "crucial but complicated" year for China's economic development as the country will continue fighting against the global financial crisis while maintaining a stable and comparatively fast economic growth and accelerating transformation of growth pattern, he said.

 

Observers, however, said they are sure China will hit the growth target.

 

"I'm sure China will surpass the 8-percent growth target this year as its industry engine is very strong and the country has recovered from the financial crisis," said Lars Backstrom, Ambassador of Finland in China.

 

The diplomat was echoed by Peter Trebitsch, a reporter from Hungarian News Agency Corporation. "If China sets 8-percent, it will be," he said.

 

Zhuang Jian, senior economist with the Asia Development Bank, noted that last year China flexed its entire muscle to meet its eight percent target amid the most difficult year for economic growth, but this year, the goal will be achieved at ease as international and domestic conditions emerge from the worst time.

 

He also said the new target demonstrates the resolution of the Chinese government to shift its development focus from quantity to quality.

 

"Growth is not a priority. Even nine percent or ten percent of growth are within reach in the short-term, but that is no longer desirable since China has learnt from the financial crisis that the previous model is not sustainable," Zhuang said.

Peter Trebitsch also noticed China is giving more attention to quality of growth, instead of only focusing on expansion.

 

The key of economic development pattern transformation, however, lies in implementation of policies in lower level governments, he said.

 

As the first country emerging from the global economic downturn, China's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 8.7 percent in 2009 from a year earlier, above the 8-percent target the government set at the beginning of last year.

 

China's quarterly economic growth accelerated as the government's economic stimulus package started to pay off. The national economy rose 6.2 percent in the first quarter last year, 7.9 percent in the second quarter, 9.1 percent in the third and 10.7 percent in the fourth.

 

"Considering the circumstances that many countries are still suffering considerably, the target of 8 percent growth can leave room for Chinese people to improve their living standards," said Francois Jackman, counselor with Embassy of Barbados in China.

 

FACTBOX: Key figures in government work report by Premier Wen

 

Highlights of Premier Wen's government work report

 

Special Report: NPC, CPPCC Annual Sessions 2010

 

Editor: Wang Guanqun
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다음은 워싱턴포스트 http://www.washingtonpost.com

에 있는
AP의 기사입니다.
 
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China promises strong growth

in 'crucial year'

 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is projected on a screen as he reads out the government work report during the opening session of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, China, Friday, March 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is projected on a screen as he reads out the government work report during the opening session of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, China, Friday, March 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan - AP)
  Enlarge Photo    
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By JOE McDONALD
The Associated Press
Friday, March 5, 2010; 6:44 AM
 

BEIJING -- China's Premier Wen Jiabao promised strong growth this year and said the government will combat inflation and risks to banks to keep the rebound in the world's third-largest economy on track.

 

In an annual report to China's legislature, Wen announced a growth target Friday of 8 percent in a "crucial year" for recovery. He said stimulus spending and easy credit will continue because the basis of renewed global growth is still weak.

 

Beijing will keep its currency "basically stable," Wen said, giving no sign whether it might ease exchange-rate controls that Washington and other trading partners say keep China's yuan undervalued, swelling its trade surplus.

 

Wen said the government will take steps to control inflation and other problems fueled by the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus and a flood of bank lending that helped China rebound quickly from the global downturn.

 

"This is a crucial year for continuing to deal with the global financial crisis, maintaining steady and rapid economic development and accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development," the premier said in a nationally televised speech at Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

 

Any hiccup in China's recovery could have global repercussions if it erodes the country's demand for U.S. and European factory equipment or imported iron ore and other raw materials from Australia, Brazil and other countries.

 

The government has announced an 8 percent growth target annually in recent years and usually exceeds it. Last year's growth was 8.7 percent.

 

The government hopes to create 9 million new jobs while holding this year's inflation rate to 3 percent, Wen said. He said total central and local government spending is forecast at 8.5 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion), with a 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion) deficit.

 

Wen promised more steps to boost domestic consumer spending and the creation of high-tech industry to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth. He said the government will do more to develop China's growing clean energy industries.

 

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"We urgently need to transform the pattern of economic development," he said.

 

In a separate report, the Cabinet's planning agency promised to open more areas of the economy to foreign investors and said it would guide them to high-tech fields, clean energy and environmental protection. It said China hopes to attract $96 billion in foreign direct investment this year.

 

Wen warned that "risks in the banking and public finance sectors are increasing," though he gave no details. He promised to strengthen risk management and make regulatory oversight of financial industries more effective.


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China promises strong growth

in 'crucial year'

 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is projected on a screen as he reads out the government work report during the opening session of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, China, Friday, March 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is projected on a screen as he reads out the government work report during the opening session of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, China, Friday, March 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan - AP)
  Enlarge Photo    
Discussion Policy
Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.

China's banks are flush with cash and avoided the mortgage turmoil that battered Western lenders. But regulators worry that lending standards were relaxed as bankers complied with orders to support the stimulus and too much money went to unneeded factories and other assets, possibly leading to a wave of loan defaults later.

 

The government has ordered banks to set aside more reserves in a step to keep lending stable but has avoided raising interest rates, which might slow growth.

 

Wen promised to "resolutely curb" a surge in politically sensitive housing costs, which accelerated in January, rising by 9.5 percent from a year earlier in 70 cities. He promised more spending to build low-income housing.

 

Communist leaders worry that a surge in inflation and housing costs could erode the public's gains from economic reforms, possibly fueling social tensions and frustration about corruption and official abuses.

 

He repeated the government's earlier announcement that it will scale back total lending by China's banks to 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year. Lenders handed out some 9.5 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) last year. Nevertheless, Wen said this year's limit is still "moderately easy" and should meet reasonable credit needs.

 

Beijing faces rising pressure from Washington and other trading partners to ease its currency controls, an issue that governments set aside as they collaborated to revive global growth. President Barack Obama vowed last month to press for the elimination of currency systems that depress export prices and hurt American companies.

 

The issue is especially sensitive at a time when other countries are trying to boost trade to recover from the global economic crisis.

 

The yuan's value was tied to the dollar for decades. Beijing broke that link in 2005 and allowed the currency to rise by about 20 percent through late 2008. It halted that rise after the global crisis hit to help Chinese exporters compete abroad.

 

A group of U.S. manufacturers and labor unions, the Fair Currency Coalition, is calling on Congress to declare China's currency controls an illegal subsidy and impose sanctions if they are not ended.

 

"China's subsidy-induced price advantage fuels that country's trade surpluses and undercuts America's economic recovery," the group said in a Feb. 24 statement.


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기사입니다.

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2009年我国改革开放和社会主义现代化建设取得重大成就

 

2010年03月05日 09:09 来源:新华网、中国政府网

 

 

2010年3月5日上午9时,十一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在人民大会堂举行开幕会,听取国务院总理 温家宝作政府工作报告,审查年度计划报告和预算报告。

 

    国务院总理温家宝3月5日在十一届全国人大三次会议上作政府工作报告时说,2009年是新世纪以来我国经济发展最为困难的一年。在异常困难的情况下,全国各族人民在中国共产党的坚强领导下,坚定信心,迎难而上,顽强拼搏,从容应对国际金融危机冲击,在世界率先实现经济回升向好,改革开放和社会主义现代化建设取得新的重大成就。

 

    温家宝说,去年我国国内生产总值达到33.5万亿元,比上年增长8.7%;财政收入6.85万亿元,增长11.7%;粮食产量5.31亿吨,再创历史新高,实现连续6年增产;城镇新增就业1102万人;城镇居民人均可支配收入17175元,农村居民人均纯收入5153元,实际增长9.8%和8.5%。我国在全面

 

 

建设小康社会道路上又迈出坚实的一步。实践再次证明,任何艰难险阻都挡不住中华民族伟大复兴的历史进程。

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温家宝谈2009年政府工作体会 坚持5个“必须”

 

 

2010年03月05日 09:37 来源:新华网、中国政府网

 

 

2010年3月5日上午9时,十一届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在人民大会堂举行开幕会,听取国务院总理温家宝作政府工作报告,审查年度计划报告和预算报告。

 

    国务院总理温家宝3月5日在十一届全国人大三次会议上作政府工作报告时说,一年来,我们认真贯彻落实科学发展观,积极应对国际金融危机,全面做好政府工作,有以下几点体会:

 

    必须坚持运用市场机制和宏观调控两种手段,在坚持市场经济改革方向、发挥市场配置资源基础性作用、激发市场活力的同时,充分发挥我国社会主义制度决策高效、组织有力、集中力量办大事的优势。必须坚持处理好短期和长期两方面关系,注重远近结合、标本兼治,既克服短期困难、解决突出矛盾,又加强重点领域和薄弱环节、为长远发展奠定基础。必须坚持统筹国内国际两个大局,把扩大内需作为长期战略方针,坚定不移地实行互利共赢的开放战略,加快形成内需外需协调拉动经济增长的格局。必须坚持发展经济与改善民生、维护社会公平正义的内在统一,围绕改善民生谋发展,把改善民生作为经济发展的出发点、落脚点和持久动力,着眼维护公平正义,让全体人民共享改革发展成果,促进社会和谐稳定。必须坚持发挥中央和地方两个积极性,既强调统一思想、顾全大局,又鼓励因地制宜、探索创新,形成共克时艰的强大合力。

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